Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Weekly Fear-Mongoring: Scary Global Trends 2013-2014

Part of my remit as Blogger-In-Chief is to follow up goofy posts with a serious macro view of what's going on in our world that the news media is not picking up. As I've mentioned in previous posts, I'm pretty plugged in to the non-Fox News/CNN/MSNBC alternative media, especially the financial markets. Again, I'm no smarter than any other bozo out there with a blog and an opinion, but when the kids are in bed, I like to scour the net for financial, economic, geopolitical and 'alternative' news (not cross-dressers and tri-sexuals, but doom and gloom/secret society newsboards), in lieu of watching The Bachelorette, DWTS, and all of the other mindless rubbish the rest of bonkers jowly America is watching.

So what follows started off as me just having fun with some buddies of mine, giving my thoughts on what the alternative media is saying and how I processed the information from a timeline perspective. It evolved into a comprehensive brain-dump of everything I had read over an eight month span. 75% of what I wrote has a good chance of happening between now and the end of 2014. Here is what followed. Have fun with it, call me crazy if you want, but just remember how far both parties have taken us into the ditch since 9/11/01. Approval ratings are as low as they can go for Congress. As I said on Facebook on November 6th (in between swear words and race-baiting), it's over. We are finished as a country. It's a matter of time before the other shoe drops. Romney would have merely delayed the inevitable. So really, both parties plus the Federal Reserve have ruined us and our reputation domestically, internationally, and militarily. Ron Paul isn't in Congress anymore to be the voice of reason. Hell, I've even warmed to Dennis Kucinich cause he at least 'gets it.' So enough ranting, here is what I think is coming down the pike. No snide tin-foil remarks. Enjoy and hope you get a pit in your stomach! Hugs and kisses! 
·         Fiscal cliff fallout
o   Looks like this is an over-sized turd sandwich. $620b of tax hikes on the rich over a ten year span, now ZERO cuts in government spending. How on earth is this possible? It’s the equivalent of a 6% cut on the annual deficit of $1.1 trillion. Anytime Democrats promise future spending cuts in exchange for tax hikes, the tax hikes happen automatically and the spending cuts never materialize. The GOP assclowns will get played by Obummer YET AGAIN and taxes will go up for the second time in four months while $80 billion gets cut from discretionary spending (insert 'mmmm PSSHHHHH' hand gesture)
o   Markets have a boner now, but will subside in the next six weeks when Wall Street digests the stupidity and lack of meaningful action to reduce deficit.
·         Debt Ceiling Talks
o   GOP got their butts whipped by Obama in the Fiscal Cliff talks, so they will play hardball with Debt Ceiling next month, demanding the aforementioned cuts that will never materialize in exchange for a bump in the ceiling to $18.7b (up from $16.4b).
o   Threats of bankruptcy/insolvency will be used to frighten GOP into caving, they eventually do cause they’re p-words.
o   BOOM! Next business day, all of the ratings agencies cut the US Bond rating from AAa to AA. They've already sent out warnings. But I'm sure the Obama administration will try to portray S&P and Fitch as perverts or tax dodgers, just like OJ's defense team distracted the overwhelming evidence with Mark Fuhrmann saying the N word. Don't pay attention to our government's response. We are in trouble.
·         Dollar deflation/Price Inflation
o   Dollar plunges, markets plunge after credit rating downgraded. This starts the descent of everything into chaos.
o   This QE3/4 mumbo jumbo is gonna kill us. They keep printing to accommodate their debt problems and every other country on earth thinks it’s a frigging joke. Usually a 3 year lag on inflation when money is injected, so this started in late 2009/most of 2010 and we are smack dab in the timeframe for monetary inflation.
o   India, China, Japan, Russia, Brazil and soon Saudi Arabia (once the king dies) have all signed bilateral trade agreements in their own currencies as part of a ‘Dollar Exclusion’ zone. This will further depress demand for our worthless currency.
o   Petrodollar is dying (means of exchange for oil with dollar as reserve currency), and these deals are exponentially expanding throughout 2012 and onward. Nobody wants to invest in the dollar. Nobody wants to invest in the Euro. It’s all part of the planned collapse and implementation of a one world currency.
o   Worst drought in 100 years in 2012. We are the biggest farming country on earth and this past summer was dreadful for crops. They all expect 20% increases on daily food products in Spring 2013 in the US. Rest of world will be even worse. Last time food spiked, we got Arab Spring in Egypt which caught like wildfire because of wheat shortages. This will be well-timed with any economic collapse. Food riots are the fuse that lights chaos. Whenever 40% of income goes to food, panics ensue. Right now we are around 15-20% and growing fast.
·         Tax Policy/Healthcare
o   April 15th is tax day. Revenues have been steady but this year the government brings in significantly less than in prior years because of those pesky 47% not paying taxes, tax shelters, creative accounting practices, etc. This heavily weighs down the market. Investment blogger Max Keiser is predicting chaos late April when these numbers are disseminated.
o   Obamacare kicks in officially January 1st, 2014, but benchmarking begins in January 2013. Small companies will start to lay off people to avoid the fines for no healthcare over 50 employees. Also residual fallout from angered employers over the election.
·         Unemployment
o   7.8% unemployment rate is very contrived and doesn’t represent true amount of eligible people working. Real number is 11.5% or in some estimates, 15%. More people leave the workforce cause they’re losers and then the government points to a lower % of unemployment. Can’t believe this dumbass jerk country falls for it each month like the job market is really getting better. Accepting a job for 25% less is not 'improvement.' Going from an office job to a barrista at Starbucks is not 'a great experience.' Manufacturing jobs ain't coming back. You should have expanded your skillset while you were employed at the plant instead of worrying about your hour long lunchbreak. We are expensive labor. I'd outsource too if I could!!!
o   I think it will go up to 8.8%/9% by year-end 2014. Call it the ‘Obama Recovery.’
o   Food stamps explodes to over 50 million by end of 2013.  (Up 57% from 32 million at end of Bush term – still unacceptable then, which is why I quit the party).
·         Interest Rates
o   We are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Either we keep printing and inflation hits hyper levels so that it costs $10 for a damn loaf of bread but ho-hum we keep monetizing our stupid debt (combined with lack of interest in our toilet paper fiat currency by other former allies) OR we end our ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) and goose it back up to 1.5%/2.0%, which will KILL this country in interest payments. Imagine if most of our tax revenues went to INTEREST on the debt? That’s where we’re headed!
o   China, Japan, and Brazil are our biggest investors. They are slowly backing away and unwinding their treasury positions as it is, money printing only makes us less desirable. Currently rates are slated to start going back up late 2014/early 2015, but Bernanke keeps pushing this out cause the Fed has no solution in mind. I say they leave rates alone in 2013.
·         Commodities Outlook
o   Gold -  it’s at $1692 right now, I think with all the dollar decline and chaos, it moves up to $2000 by year-end.
o   Silver – about $32 right now, I think it makes a bigger percentage move over the next few years and ends 2013 at around $40. More upside on silver cause its used in production and we are relying on silver reserves being found every year.
o   Numerous reports on the internet say that the US and UK have squandered the safekept German gold at their facilities. Germany is pissed. Russia and China are consolidating and expatriating their gold reserves out of the hands of the US and Europe. No one can be trusted anymore. This will end in war if countries aren’t made whole (also another reason for the Iraq and Libya invasions – they get to loot all the gold of Hussein and Gaddafi and replace what was used). Frequent news reports are showing a COMPLETE and WIDESPREAD distrust among banks in US and Europe. Everybody wants their own gold in their own hands. What happens when all of it has been lent out and is hard to get back? I guess we'll find out.
o   There are rumors that the silver market has not moved because of JPM manipulation. They enter into astronomical amounts of put options to keep the price down on silver. The CFTC (regulatory agency in charge of keeping commodities markets trading fairly) will not publish who its biggest futures contracts are but have implied a large market mover is a too big to fail bank that ‘acquired’ another company in early 2008 (JPM bought Bear Stearns in early 2008). They aren’t doing anything to stop it, but most feel that eventually JPM will be cornered and give themselves up (which will cause bloodletting in the process).
·         Euro Outlook
o   Each month, the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain) ask for more bailout money. Germany and France are tired of shelling out since they are in near recessions themselves. Expect this to continue until late 2013 where enough is enough and Greece and Spain get booted from the Euro. Germany may leave voluntarily, France is having a TON of revenue problems after the infamous millionaires tax drove people out of the country to Belgium and was ultimately REMOVED last month after the Gerard Depardieu fiasco. And by 'fiasco' I don't mean his role in My Father The Hero, which featured the debut of Katherine Heigl. I may have had a small crush on her at the time.   
o   More riots in Spain and Greece, and the food shortage will start to really ramp up. Anything shipped from United States will have higher costs and our drought will certainly not be helping European countries that rely on us.
o   A frequent guest on Alex Jones (Lindsey Williams) has said the Euro will not implode until every country is incredibly leveraged to the teeth and under the watchful eye of the European Central Banks (‘Planners’). This could be anywhere from two to three years, but I think sooner.
·         Middle East Outlook
o   Israel still wants to go ahead and bomb Iran. Netanyahu just got reelected yesterday. The November incursion in the Gaza Strip was a test to see how the Israel defense systems and artillery worked, so far so good. Renewed focus on a covert attack with the US is more likely than a wide-open war.
o   Obama and Netanyahu have an agreement to let the sanctions run their course until Springtime and then Obama gave the commitment of US forces to the region. But Obama is a pathological liar and hates Israel. So I'll believe it when I see it.
o   Russia will still be arming Iran and Syria in the coming months, but the word is that Syria needs to fall BEFORE we attack Iran, so that allies like Turkey won’t have opposition and Israeli and US forces can run straight through a beaten up Syria. Russia is currently removing all of its expats from Syria as we speak, the largest removal since the uprising began in March 2011.
o   Syrian chemical weapons WILL be used in 2013. Reports are starting to trickle out that victims are showing signs of poisonous gas in their lungs. No matter who deploys these weapons, it will be blamed on Assad’s government. We continue to fund these rebels (‘Al Qaeda’), and yes, these are the WMD’s that were moved from Iraq in 2002 before the war. Obama will use Syrian chemical weapons usage as a pretext to invade Syria.
o   I’d wager that Syria escalates in Springtime with an Iran attack in June. I know I’ve kicked the can on this dumb prediction but YOU SHUT YOUR MOUTHS!!!!
·         2nd Amendment Gun Legislation - I had a lot written but decided to take it out of this post so I don't end up on some Department of Homeland Security list for spreading weird conspiracy theories. All I can say is don't be surprised if more of these tragedies happen and are exploited by the gun control lobby. Also, the new domestic terrorist will be the prepper, veteran, conspiracy theorist, libertarian, constitutionalist, etc. Step aside, Al Qaeda.

That's all for now. Hope I scared the shit out of you. Things are getting worse, not better. All of the major indicators that were in place before the crash of 1987, 2000, and 2007 are going off again, and this time its much worse. So enjoy your winter ski season people and keep a watchful eye on the world around you! Since you probably are rolling your eyes and lost respect for me, fear not, I will be looking out on your behalf. As usual, thanks for reading! Pleasantly surprised at the amount of views I'm getting (hint - its more than 3 people).

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